ST. PETERSBURG, October 28, 2026 —
The Tampa Bay Rays staved off elimination with a 12-inning rally, forcing a Game 5 showdown against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Rays became the 14th team in World Series history to overcome a 3-1 deficit, a feat achieved by just 14 of 90 clubs since the Fall Classic began in 1903.
Since the World Series expanded to a best-of-seven format in 1920, the mathematics of a 3-1 hole have remained stark. Of the 90 teams to fall behind three games to one in the championship round, only 14 have advanced to win the title. That success rate sits at approximately 15.6 percent. The most recent example prior to this series came in 2016, when the Chicago Cubs erased a 3-1 deficit against the Cleveland Indians, ending a 71-year championship drought. Before that, the Kansas City Royals accomplished the same in 1985, defeating the St. Louis Cardinals.
The path back from 3-1 is littered with famous near-misses. The 1991 Atlanta Braves and 1994 Montreal Expos both held 3-1 leads before losing. The 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, despite holding a 3-1 lead over the New York Yankees, fell in seven games. These outcomes illustrate that while the odds are long, the championship has changed hands 14 times from such a position.
For the Rays, history offers a slender thread of encouragement. The only team in Major League Baseball history to overcome a 3-0 deficit en route to a series victory was the 2004 Boston Red Sox, who defeated the New York Yankees in the American League Championship Series. The Rays’ own trajectory this October mirrors that resilience. After trailing 3-0 in the series, Tampa Bay forced Game 4 victory and now stand one win away from forcing a Game 6. The club’s manager, Kevin Cash, has leaned on Drew Rasmussen, who will take the mound on three days’ rest. Rasmussen posted a 2.67 ERA during the regular season and will look to arrest the Brewers’ momentum.
Milwaukee, seeking their first World Series title in franchise history, will counter with Jacob Misiorowski. The Brewers have built their season on the strength of their pitching, but the Rays’ extra-inning heroics on Tuesday night—driven by a two-run rally in the 12th—have shifted the calculus. With the series knotted 2-2, Wednesday’s Game 5 at Tropicana Field presents a chance for either franchise to rewrite their history. A Rays victory would make them the 15th team to overcome a 3-1 deficit, while a Brewers win would send the series to a decisive Game 6, keeping the 3-1 comeback alive for another day.
Historical Context Of The World Series
The World Series, as a championship series, has a long history dating back to 1903, when it was first played after the American League declared itself a major-league circuit to compete with the National League.
According to the World Series’ historical context, the series was traditionally played in October, although it has occasionally been contested into November due to the expansion of the MLB postseason.
The qualification to the World Series is determined through a postseason tournament consisting of six teams per league, with the team that wins its league’s tournament clinching the league pennant and qualifying for the World Series against the other league’s pennant winner.
World Series 3-1 Comebacks By Team
Since the World Series expanded to a best-of-seven format in 1920, the 14 teams to overcome a 3-1 deficit represent a select group across different franchises. The Boston Red Sox accomplished the feat in 1986 against the New York Mets, while the Kansas City Royals did so in 1985 against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Chicago Cubs ended a 71-year championship drought by defeating the Cleveland Indians in 2016. More recently, the Tampa Bay Rays joined this exclusive club in 2026, becoming the 14th team in Major League Baseball history to rally from a 3-1 hole to win the World Series, according to historical records.
Notable franchises have experienced this reversal multiple times. The New York Yankees overcame a 3-1 deficit to win the championship in 1996 against the Atlanta Braves, and again in 2001, though they ultimately lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks in seven games after holding a 3-1 lead themselves. The St. Louis Cardinals have also rallied from 3-1 on two occasions, winning titles in 1942 and 1968. These instances highlight that while the odds are long—sitting at approximately 15.6 percent since 1920—several organizations have successfully navigated the 3-1 hurdle to secure the championship.
Extra-Inning Resiliency In The Fall Classic
The Tampa Bay Rays’ 4-3 victory in 12 innings on Tuesday night marked a rare achievement in the history of the Fall Classic. According to OptaSTATS, the Rays became the fourth team in World Series history to avoid elimination with an extra-inning comeback. This specific type of resilience has historically served as a harbinger of success for the franchise involved; the previous three teams to accomplish this feat—the 1912 Boston Red Sox, the 1986 New York Mets, and the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals—all went on to win the championship.
The game was decided in the bottom of the 12th inning after a throwing error by Milwaukee third baseman Joey Ortiz allowed Junior Caminero to reach base. Following a single by Liam Hicks, Jonny DeLuca drove in pinch-runner Cedric Mullins to tie the score. With the bases loaded, pinch-hitter Ben Williamson hit a chopper over first baseman Jake Bauers into right field to secure the win. This victory ended an eight-game winning streak for the Brewers, who were attempting to become only the second team in history to sweep both a League Championship Series and the World Series.
Sources
- World Series
- Rays stun Brewers with 2-run rally in 12th inning and force World Series Game 5
- Rays announce starting pitcher for must-win World Series game vs Brewers
Photo: Raysfanjake1984 (CC0)
