Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $196,000 has been wagered on the contract for Israel’s first mandate to form a government, with Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc holding an 80 percent probability as of November 2, up 11 points, while Benjamin Netanyahu sits at 24 percent, down 9 points, according to Benzinga’s analysis of the prediction market.
Election Results Set the Board
The record shows Netanyahu’s bloc secured 53 seats in the October 27 vote for the 26th Knesset, while the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot won 48 seats, and Arab-led parties took the remaining 19, according to the Kalshi data cited by Benzinga. The 120-seat parliament requires 61 for a majority. No bloc reached it. The Arab parties’ 19 seats now sit as the decisive variable, a dynamic the Forward noted has determined center-left parliamentary majorities since 1973, including Yitzhak Rabin’s 1992 victory.
Gantz’s Withdrawal Reshapes the Opposition
Benny Gantz, the former defense minister and chief of staff who came closest to unseating Netanyahu in 2019-2020, announced on October 23 that he would not run, telling a Ramat Gan conference hall that his Blue and White party polled at roughly 1 percent, well below the 3.25 percent electoral threshold, the Jerusalem Post reported. “He said he had failed to convince enough people of his path, that he would keep working for a unity government, and that he had always been, before anything else, a soldier of Israel,” the Post recorded. Gantz’s decision removed the politician who had twice accepted the mandate to form a government, twice failed, and in 2020 entered a rotation agreement with Netanyahu that collapsed before the scheduled handover.
On the timeline, Gantz’s political arc traces from the 2018 founding of Israel Resilience through the Blue and White alliance, the 2020 unity government, the 2021-2022 Bennett-Lapid coalition where he served as defense minister and deputy prime minister, the October 2023 war cabinet entry, and the June 2024 exit alongside Eisenkot over the conduct of the Gaza war. The National Unity party he led in 2022 fractured in March 2024 when Gideon Sa’ar departed, the Majalla infographic documents. By October 2023, Gantz held a minister-without-portfolio role in Netanyahu’s thirty-seventh government. His departure from the Knesset race leaves Eisenkot, his former war cabinet partner, as the opposition’s standard-bearer.
Arab Bloc Becomes Kingmaker
The Forward framed the paradox: Netanyahu, whose government presided over the October 7 catastrophe and subsequent security failures, may survive because his opponents cannot bring themselves to accept Arab parliamentary support. In 2020, most of the Joint Arab List recommended Gantz for prime minister, producing a numerical majority that collapsed when several opposition lawmakers refused to countenance it. The 2021 Bennett-Lapid government included the Arab party Ra’am, proving cooperation possible across ideological divides.
U.S. Endorsement and the Broad-Government Preference
President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu on Truth Social ahead of the vote, urging Israelis to choose the “warrior” prime minister, the Benzinga report noted. Yet senior American officials have reportedly intimated they would prefer a broad-based government after the election, i24 News analysis stated. Ambassador Mike Huckabee met Eisenkot in an unannounced session later downplayed by the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem. Bill Ackman, a Trump-aligned investor, publicly called for a unity government excluding hard-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. In September 2025, Trump told reporters “I will not allow Israel to annex the West Bank” when right-wing factions floated the idea.
Sources
- Netanyahu’s Odds Sink as Eisenkot Surges to 80% on Kalshi After Israel Election Deadlock
- Benny Gantz
- Benny Gantz quits Knesset race, highlighting the collapse of Israel's political center | The Jerusalem Post
- Israel’s election may hinge on whether Netanyahu's opposition will accept Arab support
- Analysis: Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu, but what does he really want? – i24NEWS
- Israeli elections challenge Netanyahu's grip on power
Photo: U.S. Department of State (Public domain)
