PHNOM PENH, October 10 — According to the International Crisis Group’s October 9, 2025 report, Cambodia faces an uphill battle in resolving its border dispute with Thailand due to Thailand’s military advantage and limited external leverage to force a settlement. The report titled ‘Toward a Thaw in the Cambodia-Thailand Border Conflict’ stated that prospects for resolving the dispute remain poor, as Thailand has little incentive to change the status quo while Cambodia lacks the means to compel it.
On the timeline, the ICG noted that fighting in July and December 2025 killed at least 150 people and displaced roughly one million, with a ceasefire halting hostilities but failing to resolve the underlying territorial dispute. Thai forces control much of the high ground and territory on both sides of the contested border, including land the report describes as indisputably Cambodian beyond Bangkok’s proposed border line.
Cambodia has sought international involvement, including requesting an International Court of Justice ruling in June 2025 on four disputed locations: Ta Moan Thom, Ta Moan Tauch, Ta Krabei, and Mom Bei, though Thailand does not accept the court’s jurisdiction over the wider land-border dispute. China and the United States have played diplomatic roles, but the ICG cautioned that outside powers are unlikely to impose a lasting agreement, noting China would avoid jeopardizing relations with either country.
ASEAN mediation has also proven ineffective, with the ICG stating the bloc has been unable to advance a resolution since the initial ceasefire unraveled, despite the Philippines, as ASEAN chair, using its good offices to bring the Cambodian and Thai prime ministers together. ASEAN Observer Teams, staffed by military attachés and representatives based in Bangkok and Phnom Penh, can only observe border areas with host country permission, and both governments have used visits to support competing accounts of the conflict.
The ICG recommends granting observers greater independence to rebuild confidence.
Domestic politics in Thailand further complicate compromise, with the border described as an emotionally charged issue; a Thai senior security official told the ICG the government ‘can’t back down,’ while another official said domestic political incentives favor maintaining the impasse, noting ‘there’s no strong desire to normalize [relations].’ Bilateral trade fell by 40 percent to $1.3 billion in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the report, with continued confrontation risking deeper economic damage to cross-border communities.
The ICG identifies restarting bilateral border-demarcation work through the Joint Boundary Commission as a practical step, stating its surveying and demarcation efforts ‘is a prerequisite for settling the dispute and should be restarted as soon as possible,’ though it would not guarantee agreement over every contested area. For Cambodia, the challenge is to use international engagement to sustain negotiations and document claims, rather than assume diplomatic support will automatically yield territorial concessions from Thailand.
Looking ahead, the ICG’s recommendations will be tested as both countries navigate domestic pressures and limited international influence in seeking a durable settlement.
