SHENZHEN, July 17 — The story of BYD’s global ambitions is, at its heart, a story about arithmetic. The Chinese automaker sold 3.02 million vehicles in 2023. Toyota, the world’s perennial sales leader, sold 11.23 million.
To simply match that volume by 2029, BYD would need to sell roughly 11.2 million cars in that year — a compound annual growth rate of 24.5 percent over six years. That is a steep climb, even for a company that grew sales by 62 percent in 2022 and 57 percent in 2023.
Growth, as any analyst will note, tends to slow as the base expands. BYD’s own internal projections acknowledge this: the company is targeting a compound annual growth rate of 30 percent in overseas markets and 15 percent in China. The overseas push is where the drama lies.
Overseas expansion: a steep hill
BYD sold just 242,000 vehicles outside China in 2023. The company aims to sell 1.5 million overseas by 2025 — a compound annual growth rate of 149 percent over two years. That’s an extraordinary acceleration, and the first half of 2024 offers a mixed picture.
BYD’s total sales for the period were 1.6 million vehicles, up 28 percent year-on-year. Toyota’s first-half 2024 sales, by contrast, were 5.2 million vehicles, down 4.7 percent year-on-year.
For those involved in BYD’s export strategy, the numbers carry real stakes. The company’s battery-electric vehicle sales in 2023 were 1.57 million, trailing Tesla’s 1.81 million. But BYD also sold 1.45 million plug-in hybrids that year, giving it a broader product base than its American rival.
In China’s new energy vehicle market, BYD commanded a 35 percent share in 2023. Toyota, meanwhile, has been remarkably stable.
Its annual sales have hovered around 10 million units since 2019, with a slight rise from 10.5 million that year to 11.2 million in 2023 — a compound annual growth rate of just 1.3 percent. Toyota’s global market share stood at 12.5 percent in 2023.
The road ahead
What unfolded over the past year is a tale of two trajectories. One company is surging from a smaller base; the other is holding steady from a commanding height. BYD’s goal to overtake Toyota by 2029 rests on maintaining that momentum against a rival that has shown little sign of slipping.
The arithmetic is unforgiving. To reach 11.2 million vehicles in six years, BYD needs a 24.5 percent compound annual growth rate — far below its recent 57 percent spike, but still aggressive for an automaker scaling toward the industry’s summit.
For now, the numbers tell a story of ambition meeting reality, with the next few years set to reveal which side bends.
