Moscow says it can ship more diesel than the amount it just agreed with Washington. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told the Vesti programme on Monday that supplies to world markets could reach 3.5 million tonnes a month by year’s end, the level before the crisis. That boast landed on top of a deal that has already opened a rift between the United States and Europe.
What Trump and Putin agreed
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin spoke on Friday about an arrangement expected to put 300,000 tonnes of diesel on world markets in October, half a million in November and a million in December. Trump promised that prices “will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!” The deal would suspend sanctions on Russian oil products until April 2027.
Experts are doubtful. Kostis Stambolis, executive director of the Institute of Energy for South-East Europe, called it “purely political”, a move meant to corner Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In his reading, Trump wants to show the US has “no problem with Russia”, unlike Europe. Russia makes 5.8 million tonnes of diesel a month, he said, and about two million are likely available for export.
Strategically, Stambolis argued, Trump is exploiting a European weakness. About 30 European refineries have closed in 15 years because emitting greenhouse gases under the Emissions Trading Scheme costs money, leaving the continent short of refined products. The result, he said, is that Trump is signalling he does not want to deal with Europe, widening the gap with the EU.
Europe and Kyiv push back
Ursula von der Leyen said on Sunday that funding for Ukraine would be “front and centre” at this week’s European Council summit. Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen called on Europeans to ban all tourist visas for Russians.
Kyiv’s argument is that its campaign is working. Ukraine says it has wrecked roughly half of Russia’s refining capacity, forcing Moscow to stop exporting valuable fuel products that help pay for the war, and it has also hit tankers carrying Russian crude. “Gifts to Putin will not lead to peace,” Zelenskyy said on Saturday. Any easing of sanctions without a lasting de-escalation agreement, he added, is “an obvious sign of weakness.”
Trump blames Kyiv for higher fuel costs as US midterm elections approach in early November. “[Zelenskyy] wants to make problems for our farmers, our ranchers, with diesel fuel,” he told reporters, and then said: “I think it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.”
A policy of swings
Trump announced an energy ceasefire on Sunday, and Ukraine suspended its refinery strikes. Russian strikes still hammered Kyiv’s energy grid and killed 12 people in Dnipropetrovsk. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said of Zelenskyy: “I do not think he has earned a respite.”
The record is erratic. Trump cut US military aid to Ukraine in January 2025 but agreed to sell weapons to Europe for Ukraine’s use. He clashed with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office in February 2025, then praised him at this year’s NATO summit. Last month he signed the Lindsey Graham Act, which would let him punish buyers of Russian oil, and reversed course eleven days later. Victoria Vdovychenko of Cambridge University’s Centre for Geopolitics sees a pattern: whenever the pendulum swings one way, Trump reaches for the opposite tool to keep control of the narrative.
What moves the pump price
US Energy Information Administration figures show the Ukraine war barely moved American fuel prices, while the US-Israel war on Iran moved them a lot. Diesel was $4.10 a gallon on the day of Russia’s invasion, February 24, 2022, and $3.81 on February 28, 2026, on the eve of the Gulf war. It has since climbed 78 percent to $6.19 in early October. Regular gasoline went from $2.79 to $4.15.
Stambolis thinks the Russian diesel matters less than a G7 announcement on October 2 of a 100 million barrel release from strategic reserves, which he expects to begin within two weeks. The world, he said, is 5 million barrels a day short of crude compared with before the Gulf war.
