Geely Holding Group Chairman Eric Li warned that direct replacement of degraded EV battery packs is “too expensive,” a cost that could render many older electric cars uneconomical to keep on the road.
Battery Degradation Meets 15‑Year Vehicle Lifecycles
According to the filing, Li highlighted a mismatch between the typical 15‑year lifecycle of a vehicle and the rate at which traction batteries lose capacity. When a car reaches the 10‑year or 200,000 km mark, its battery often falls below the 70 % state‑of‑charge‑available (SOCE) benchmark set by China’s GB/T 46991.1‑2025 standard for 10‑year use. William Li of Nio added that many such vehicles still have five or six years of potential mileage left, but battery deterioration depresses resale value and usability.
Regulatory Benchmarks Raise the Stakes
In the United Kingdom, the newly adopted Euro 7 standard requires EV batteries to retain at least 80 % of original capacity after five years or 100,000 km, and 72 % after eight years or 160,000 km. The rule also mandates onboard state‑of‑health monitors to ensure transparent reporting in the used‑car market. These stricter benchmarks echo China’s own durability requirements, which set minimum SOCE retention at 82 % after five years or 100,000 km for most light‑duty models.
Cost of Full Pack Replacement
Direct pack replacement involves sourcing a new battery, dismantling the old pack, and reinstalling the new unit—processes that can run into several tens of thousands of dollars. Figures show that the expense often exceeds the residual value of the vehicle, especially for models equipped with higher‑energy‑density chemistries such as nickel‑manganese‑cobalt (NMC), which command premium prices.
Strategic Shift to Swapping and Modular Repairs
To address the looming cost barrier, Geely agreed to contribute its Yiyi Power business and 640 million yuan in cash for a 30 % stake in Nio Power. The investment aims to expand battery‑swapping infrastructure, offering a modular alternative to full‑pack replacement. Swapping stations can replace a depleted module in minutes, reducing downtime and avoiding the high cost of a brand‑new pack.
Emerging Battery Chemistries Offer Longer Life
Researchers at KAIST have advanced anode‑free battery designs that eliminate graphite anodes, cutting weight and size while extending cycle life. By applying semiconductor‑level precision to lithium deposition, the new cells mitigate dendrite formation, a common cause of premature failure.
In parallel, a sodium‑ion battery study demonstrated that a graphene‑coated titanium‑dioxide anode can sustain 10,000 cycles at a 10C fast‑charge rate (six‑minute charge) without significant degradation. This breakthrough suggests that fast charging and long lifespan need not be mutually exclusive.
Lithium‑iron‑phosphate (LFP) batteries, already favored for safety and cost, show slower degradation in real‑world use. An ex‑taxi Tesla Model Y with an LFP pack logged 111,000 miles, primarily on DC fast chargers, and retained 92 % state of health, illustrating that certain chemistries can endure intensive charging regimes better than NMC counterparts.
Implications for Consumers and the Used‑EV Market
With four out of five used‑car dealers in China reportedly refusing EVs older than five years due to battery‑condition concerns, the cost of pack replacement directly impacts market liquidity. Modular swapping and longer‑lasting chemistries could preserve resale values and extend the functional life of the existing fleet, aligning vehicle lifespans with battery durability.
Next Steps
Geely’s investment in Nio Power is pending regulatory clearance, and the UK’s Euro 7 battery‑capacity rules will take effect for new passenger cars in November 2027, with full compliance required by July 1 2030.
Sources
- Geely boss warns of EV battery lifespan crisis: “direct pack replacement is too expensive”
- Lithium iron phosphate battery
- UK adopts EU’s Euro 7 emissions standard, including EV battery lifespan rules
- Is The Battery Trashed? A Tesla Model Y Hits 111,000 Miles With Zero Home Charging
- DPA Magazine | Smaller, smarter, longer-lasting EV batteries could be on their way
- Sodium-ion battery allows fast charging and longer lifespan with graphene shell
Photo: Ahnaf Tahsin / Unsplash (Unsplash License)
