“Yes” at 3 cents. That is the price of betting that the US government will confirm aliens exist before November 2026, and it tells you most of what you need to know about Kalshi’s market on the question, which has passed $37 million in trading volume.
The money is following the Pentagon’s file drops. The department has now released six sets of what the press calls its “X-Files”, full of supposed witness statements and grainy video. None draws a conclusion on extraterrestrial life, and there has been no official confirmation, despite a few teasing remarks from President Trump.
How the contract resolves
Kalshi’s terms are narrow. Only the President, a Cabinet member, one of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or a federal agency member can trigger a payout, and the statement has to come before January 20, 2029. The source must be the US government, so a declaration by the UN Secretary General would not settle it. The contract also treats government officials as people currently in office. A former president’s remarks count as personal opinion.
The wording matters too. Saying “we are tracking unidentified objects” is not enough. An official has to classify the technology as non-human in origin, without ambiguity, though the government need not put a craft on display.
A timeline of the drops
In February 2026, Trump posted on Truth Social about “extremely interesting and important matters” and ordered the Secretary of War to start releasing government files on aliens and unidentified aerial phenomena. The first batch of records came out on May 8, and the “Yes Before 2029” contract jumped to 59%.
A second batch followed on May 22, with more than 50 videos and documents. Witnesses described “orange orbs swarming”, and one video apparently showed a UFO being shot down. No government confirmation came with it. The third batch landed on June 12, when the Pentagon said more files would follow on a rolling basis. In July the White House appointed Harvard astronomer Avi Loeb to lead a team studying the risks posed by UFOs. Loeb has said the reported objects might be extraterrestrial rather than man-made, noting that astronomers are being hired to investigate. The sixth batch arrived in September, with details of secret military programs.
Trump left the question open. “With these new Documents and Videos, the people can decide for themselves, ‘WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?’ Have Fun and Enjoy!” he said on the release.
Where the prices sit
In May, both the “Yes Before 2028” and “Yes Before 2029” contracts rose 8 to 9 points after the Pentagon released declassified videos and photos. The latest batch has not repeated that. The “Before January 20, 2029” contract is around 20 cents, “Before 2028” about 13%, and “Before 2027” 4.7 cents. The covers.com analysis calls the shortest-dated contract a lottery ticket and says the “No” side remains the sensible trade.
Covers also warns against treating “No” at 98 cents as free money, because an unexpected whistleblower leak or sudden policy shift could swing the contract sharply. Its writers suggest watching the legislative calendar rather than viral clips, in particular amendments on UAP declassification in the annual National Defense Authorization Act.
Believers are banking on a leak big enough to force Trump’s hand. Matt Gaetz, the former Florida congressman and Trump’s first pick for attorney general, told The Benny Show he was once briefed on a secret alien breeding program while in office. Against that sit Iran, the economy and possibly bad midterms, all competing for the White House’s attention.
